more than 1,000 russians were arrested in protests in 44 cities over the last six hours. some well-known activists were preemptively arrested as they left their house; others were arrested as soon as they unfurled placards. by the looks of it, there were large protests in st. petersburg. over 100 local government officials signed a letter opposing war, and over 170 journalists and intellectual figures signed a similar letter. this is a promising sign, but it’s feeble. as war drags on, protests will grow.

russian civil society is battered and demoralized; its most prominent figures have either been murdered or jailed. i predict that russia will become “totalitarianized” in the coming weeks, with full control over the internet and social media. it isn’t clear how extensive this will be, or how quickly it will happen. already, moscow’s largest theater announced that anyone disrupting the performances to say anything about the war will be arrested for treason. this has severe ramifications for what the postwar occupation of ukraine will look like